Why Reverse Line Movement is Overrated

A few weeks ago, I wrote an article highlighting a negative aspect about chasing Reverse Line Movement. (You can find that here) It was about how ‘Sharp’ bettors think they see Reverse Line Movement, and play it. Many of these Sharps are professional handicappers and sell this analysis. Usually they are selling the worst line possible. Needless to say, I got some pretty mean feedback from cappers who consider this the smartest way to handicap games. Now I am going to write about Why Reverse Line Movement is Overrated.

What is Reverse Line Movement?

Reverse Line Movement is usually considered an indication of Sharp money. When you see the public betting % is heavily favored towards one side but then the line moves the other direction, that is considered Reverse Line Movement. Pretty simple, huh? According to many Twitter Cappers, that is all you need to be successful.

The Experiment?

When looking at trends it is always important to have a relative and sufficient sample size.  I have always felt that short term trends such as 7 game hot streaks were overrated. In this experiment, I felt 5 years worth of trend would sufficient.  I decided to look at NFL Totals since 2010.  With an abundance of pass happy and defensive penalizing rule changes, I didn’t want to go back into the good ole days.

I decided to look at all Totals, specifically Overs since the 2010-2011 Football season.  I filtered out the last four weeks of the season to avoid random lineups from resting starters.  The initial results were impressive by themselves tallying up a record of 541-492 for 52%.  Applying Reverse Line Movement filters to an already relatively successful system has to be productive! Doesn’t it?  What if we applied the opposite of Reverse Line Movement filters?  It would destroy it right? We can’t tail the public, can we?

The Reverse Reverse

Starting with my initial sample of over 1000 plays, I felt like I was onto something. Now here is where we fade the Reverse Line Movement ideal logic and see what happens.  The first thing I did was apply the main filter of Reverse Line Movement: fade the public.  Except I sided with the Public! I removed all games where the betting public sided less than 54%.  The new record became 450-382 for 54%. It improved!  Well, it is not Reverse Line Movement if the line doesn’t become less enticing to take the over. So I removed all the games that ended with a higher total than what the line opened as.  So we only looked at games where you got a better or equal line to what the game opened as. I couldn’t believe the results myself. The new record was 259-205 for 56% winning percentage!  That’s good enough to be considered an outstanding NFL bettor.

What Did We Learn?

Nothing.  We know Why Reverse Line Movement is Overrated.  Reverse Line Movement isn’t always a system you can blindly tail.  As a matter of fact, in this case you could have blindly faded Reverse Line Movement, which is the same thing as tailing the public.  Feels dirty doesn’t it?  My recommendation is to use reverse line movement as a tool and combine it with other resources such as the information provided on our Matchups page. However if you are making your bets based off of reverse line movement, then you are most likely getting the worst lines possible for your personal bets.

Join SweepVegas and we can discuss all sports betting strategies in our forums.