When Reverse Line Movement is Wrong

Reverse Line Movement

Many Sports Bettors consider Reverse Line Movement as a way of identifying sharp money. The problem with it is they also use it as a standalone method or a major component of their capping strategies or systems. However it doesn’t always tell the whole picture. Below is an example of how the public “Tails” reverese line movement. The irony is that ‘RLM’ bettors are all about fading the public, yet in some cases they are the public.

The Reverse

On August 27th 2015, for the majority of the day the Kansas City Royals were receiving 83-85% of money line bets against the Baltimore Orioles. The Orioles line dropped from +125 to +105 while the Royals line moved -135 to -114. Even though the Orioles were receiving only 15-18% of the ML bets, their line became less enticing. That is an identification of Reverse Line Movement. Many sports bettors, recreational and professional saw that and tailed the “Sharp movement”.

What Happened

Here is where the public tails the reverse line movement and they get a devalued line. The public betting percentages began to shift. When the books closed, there were enough ML bets the last two hours of betting to move the public% AVERAGE on Baltimore from 15% to 26%. Remember, that is after about 18 hours of the lines being opened, the last two hours were hammered so hard on the Orioles side that it overcame 10 public betting percentage points from the average of 15%. Two hours shifted the AVERAGE!!!

The Issue

Do you think it was sharp bettors playing the Orioles at the absolute worst line they could possibly get? I doubt it. All the sharp bettors played their side already if they weren’t waiting out the Royals line to bottom out. Some were on the Royals and some were on the Orioles. I myself, decided a long time ago that I liked the Royals in this game. When I saw the line dropping, I smiled to myself and waited as long as I possibly could to post my bet.

What did we learn?

Nothing. Reverse Line Movement is a tool, not a system. Sometimes it wins and sometimes it loses. If used appropriately, it can be valuable. Use reverse line movement and combine it with other sources such as the information provided on our Matchups page. However if you are making your bets based off of reverse line movement, then you are most likely getting the worst lines possible for your personal bets.

Remember, this is just a common example of how Reverse Line Movements affects sports betting.  Join SweepVegas and we can discuss all sports betting strategies in our forums.

Update: Royals beat the Orioles 5-3.