@PowerD 2015 NFL Preview

Hello, this is Duncan (aka PowerD). This Is my 2015 NFL Preview. It will include a comprehensive write up of each conference, division, and team which will include:

· Futures odds where I see value lying
· Predicted W/L totals compared with books lines
· Division finishing order
· Advice on teams and lines even if they aren’t played

**NOTE** The full NFL Newsletter will be out sometime late Friday night or on Saturday. I know this weekend will be crazy with NCAAF Week 2 and NFL Week 1, but as a few things came up this week I was unable to finish the Newsletter in the time frame I normally give myself. But, it was a great hit and success last season (netting over +12 units) and hopefully this season is just as profitable. This preview is of the Patriots and Steelers, plus a couple of NFC Futures that are already locked in. Thanks for the interest and patience everyone!
New England Patriots
I have been saving the Patriots (and the AFC East for that matter) until the Tom Brady issue was resolved. I was a bit surprised at the ruling, but that also makes my job a bit easier now that you don’t have to try and figure 4 weeks of wins/losses with a backup and then 12 weeks with Touchdown Tom. With or without Brady for the first 4 weeks, you always expected them to win the AFC East and look good in December, but having him back is great for their organization. LeGarrette Blount will still be their bell cow (suspended for Week 1) and their corps of RBs behind him will always be ready to step up. Gronk is gonna Gronk, and Brady will still have little dudes out wide with Edelman and Amendola, plus the height and deep ball threat of Brandon Lafell. Their offensive weapons look awful similar to 2014, but their changes come on the O-Line. This line will have a much different look than years past, with potentially two rookies starting at both guard spots. The O-Line was the staple during the Patriots dominant 2003-2008 Super Bowl period, and while a few have aged and moved on, this is a key area for the Pats. When Tom Brady has time, he is almost flawless. He can take hits like a champ, but he will never be able to flush the pocket and find a receiver on a broken route like a few of his younger, more agile colleagues. The O-Line will have to protect him, and even if it is two rookies starting up front you best believe Belichick will demand excellence. I’m sure he will get it, and as of right now I am not worried about any of the offensive positions.
Switching to defense, this may be a worrying side of the ball. Revis and Browner are gone at CB and their replacements are Super Bowl hero Malcolm Butler, who is upgrading his role from no3 CB to no1 starter, and ex-Eagle Bradley Fletcher. They still have Patrick Chung and Devin McCourty as their safeties, but Revis and Browner are as close to irreplaceable as you can get for two starting cornerbacks and now that Butler has to move all the way up to starter no1, the Patriots secondary depth is as worrying as any in the NFL. One injury can spell disaster for this unit that already has a few question marks, and they will really have to rely on the pass rush and linebacker play if they want to see similar defensive results as last season. Moving up to the D-Line, Ninkovic and Jones are two very solid defensive ends, and it looks as if the Patriots will be using somewhat of a committee for the defensive tackle positions. Vince Wilfork no longer plugs the middle, but signing Sheard in free agency and drafting Dominique Easley this past year gives them a veteran/rookie stud combo to go with Ninkovic and Jones. Sheard will most likely be rotating on DE in the 4-3 and not playing a linebacking position, so I included him in the D-Line instead of LB’s. The Patriots also have solid depth inside of Jones and Ninkovic with Siliga, Alan Branch, and others. Their D-Line should not be a problem, and neither should their linebacking corps. Dont’a Hightower and Jerod Mayo are two absolute studs, and Jamie Collins is one of the best up and coming young linebackers in the game. If these three guys stay healthy all year, watch out.
Schedule:
Week 1: vs. Pittsburgh Week 2: @ Buffalo Week 3: vs. Jacksonville
Week 4: BYE Week 5: @ Dallas Week 6: @ Indianapolis
Week 7: vs. NY Jets Week 8: vs. Miami Week 9: vs. Washington
Week 10: @ NY Giants Week 11: vs. Buffalo Week 12: @ Denver
Week 13: vs. Philadelphia Week 14: @ Houston Week 15: vs. Tennessee
Week 16: @ NY Jets Week 17: @ Miami
Predicted Finish: 11-5
Best Case Finish: 13-3 (8-0 at home, 3 losses on road @ DAL, BUF, IND, DEN, MIA)
Worst Case Finish: 10-6

Over/Under Line: Over 10.5 -135, Under 10.5 +115
Win AFC East: -200
Make Playoffs: *off board at 5dimes*
Won’t Make Playoffs: *off board at 5dimes*
Win AFC: +340
Win Super Bowl: +850
Strangely enough, the u10.5 wins looks the best bet here (yes, even though I have them at 11-5). They do not have easy road games early, traveling to Buffalo, Dallas, and Indianapolis in the first 6 weeks. Later on they have a somewhat hard stretch of @ DEN, vs. PHI, @ HOU. I can just really see a 10-6 division winning season from the Patriots this year (again, even though that is my “worst case” finish) but their upside is too high to play any sort of under. It will probably be “square as hell” but I will probably put the Patriots in a “make playoffs” future parlay and also a “win division” future parlay. Don’t judge me on those, they won over 8 units last year!
NO PLAY ON NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Predicted Order of Finish:
New England
Buffalo Bills
Miami Dolphins
New York Jets
Pittsburgh Steelers
I have a bad feeling about the Steelers this year. Big Ben, Leveon Bell, and Antonio Brown should all shine (as well as Wheaton and Bryant at WR) and DeAngelo Williams is a decent backup to bring in, but something just feels off about this team. On offense, Roethlisberger should be as steady as always, making big plays when needed and not turning the ball over. Bell (after the two game suspension) should be electric again, and Antonio Brown will probably finish with the most receiving yards in the NFL. Also, their O-Line will probably rank among the best in the NFL against this year. So why do I have a bad feeling about the Steelers? Probably because of their defense.
Dick LeBeau, Troy Polamalu, and Brett Kiesler are gone. Their ageless schemer, their crazy haired captain, and their old man tank; all gone. Looking at this defense, I can really only pick out one player at each section that I would call “good”. Cameron Heyward on the D-Line, Lawrence Timmons at LB, and…umm…Cortez Allen at CB? They do have some young talent and have spent each of their last four 1st round picks on defenders, so IF Jarvis Jones, Ryan Shazier, and Alvin Dupree can progress and impress like Cameron Heyward has, they may be okay. It is just a bit hard to see all of the pieces that the Steelers need (and may have) come together this season. I kind of hope they prove me wrong because I would much rather see them in the playoff over the Ravens or Bengals, but I just have a bad feeling about the Pittsburgh Steelers in 2015.
Schedule:
Week 1: @ New England Week 2: vs. San Francisco Week 3: @ St. Louis
Week 4: vs. Baltimore Week 5: @ San Diego Week 6: vs. Arizona
Week 7: @ Kansas City Week 8: vs. Cincinnati Week 9: vs. Oakland
Week 10: vs. Cleveland Week 11: BYE Week 12: @ Seattle
Week 13: vs. Indianapolis Week 14: @ Cincinnati Week 15: vs. Denver
Week 16: @ Baltimore Week 17: @ Cleveland
Predicted Finish: 7-9
Best Case Finish: 9-7 (4-2 vs. AFC North, 2-2 vs. AFC West, 2-2 vs. NFC West, beat NE or IND)
Worst Case Finish: 6-10

Over/Under Line: Over 8.5 -105, Under 8.5 -105
Win AFC North: +225
Make Playoffs: +100
Won’t Make Playoffs: -130
Win AFC: +1000
Win Super Bowl: +2600
Not only did I have a bad feeling for the Steelers, but just looking at this schedule it is really hard for me to find 8 wins. In saying that, it is also still really hard for me to see them losing less than 7 games because their offensive trio can win games on their own. I really think this line should be set at 7.5 or 8, and I can only see a “best case” finish going over the season total. I like the Steelers offense, I really do, but I just don’t see them winning their division and even a .500 finish can still go under the season total.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS UNDER 8.5 WINS -105 1u
Predicted Order of Finish
Baltimore Ravens
Cincinnati Bengals
Pittsburgh Steelers
Cleveland Browns
Summary of Bets
PITTSBURGH STEELERS UNDER 8.5 WINS -105 1u
**NFC Futures from full Newsletter**
CHICAGO BEARS OVER 6.5 WINS +109 1.5u
ATLANTA FALCONS OVER 8.5 WINS +120 1u
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS UNDER 6 WINS +105 1u
**Added Parlays from 5dimes**
Win Division Parlay
New England Patriots
Indianapolis Colts
Green Bay Packers
+160 3u
Won’t Make Playoffs Parlay
Cleveland Browns
Jacksonville Jaguars
Oakland Raiders
Washington Redskins
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
San Francisco 49ers
-125 3u