2017 College Football Win Totals: Tennessee Volunteers

One of the most exciting parts about College Football is the anticipation for the season to begin. And if you are a degenerate gambler, and you are if you’re reading this, one of the first things you like to look at College Football Win totals placed by sporting books. So as a degenerate gambler, that’s exactly what I did. All my lines come from 5Dimes because they’re the best. Here’s proof.

Tennessee Volunteers Total: Over 7.5 (-115)

The Vols have long odds to win the East at +450 but I actually think their path is a little easier than people predict. The vols have concerns: New Offensive Coordinator, ongoing QB battle, new coaching assistants, and replacing a lot of NFL talent. But they also have reason for optimism. New Staff Cohesion and coaching upgrades, especially on defense, should make a large difference.

Usually the win totals should come down to a swing game or two. When I look at the Vols schedule, I see four Money Line (ML) locks (Indiana St, UMass, Southern Miss, and Missouri). That gets us half way there. Notice only one of those locks is an SEC opponent, which is why we are going for the Win Totals instead of the SEC East crown here.  There are four “most likely” ML wins: Georgia Tech, Kentucky, South Carolina, and Vanderbilt. The last two are closer to the “ML Locks” category than the “Toss ups” category. After that we have true tossups. These games have a lot of variables that need to be settled before we can say we feel comfortable one way or another. I believe the Florida Gators and the Georgia Bulldogs both fall into that category.

If Tennessee wins all of their Locks and  Most Likely games,  their win totals are already covered.

Unfortunately, teams always lose a game they shouldn’t. I think a split between UF and UGA are very possible. Then Tennessee gets LSU at home in November. By then, LSU could have collapsed or be fighting for a playoff spot. That’s a true tossup. Tennessee in November is traditionally a tough game to win. Winning two out of three of those games is very possible. But so is losing them. That’s why betting college football futures is still sports betting. After that I just drink so much moonshine that I don’t remember playing at Alabama on the Third Saturday in October.

Forget about the schedule

Screenshot from 5dimes.com

Let’s forget about the obvious stuff. Vegas knows who’s expected to do what. What I want to know is “Why is the total at 7.5?” And that should be the question you ask yourself before you place any bet. “Why is this the line?” When I look at Tennessee’s total, I feel like Vegas knows that Tennessee doesn’t have the hype this preseason. They aren’t the media darling. But let me ask this question: If Tennessee stayed healthy, won just one more game, and played in the Sugar Bowl what would this year’s preseason look like? What would the new hype be? The roster would be the same. The coaching staff would have the same faces. The only difference is the total is 7.5 instead of 8 or 8.5.  That is one of the biggest reasons I feel 7.5 wins is a good value being offered by sports books. Last year, I felt like Tennessee was being overhyped. This is the year to take the Over.

As always, we love to talk about sports and make fun of each other’s terrible bets in the Community Forum.