2017 Tennis Season
The Year In Review:
Judging yourself in a fair honest way is something all of us have a hard time with in my opinion. We tend to be overcritical of our actions and ourselves. Constantly analyzing every move, every play, every wager, every single day. We do this because we love it. We do this because we’re crazy and we enjoy the grind that is sports betting. Does that make us degenerates? No. It makes us opportunists who try to capitalize on our knowledge of sports. Unfortunately, not all of us are successful. It’s not something anyone should hang their head on either. This industry is hard. Whether you’re a numbers guru, a model expert, a CLV connoisseur or someone who just knows the ins and outs of the game, the goal is always the same. Win.
Every sport brings a wide variety of challenges to bettors. Beating the number, matchups, weather and court speed just to name a few. My year in review is something to be extremely proud of seeing as tennis has the longest season out of any professional sport. Tennis season begins on January 1st and ends in the middle of November. Between the thousands of matches played, constant ranking changes, tournament withdrawals, injuries and tanked matches, 10.5 months seems like an eternity. Well, it is but I love it and I’m good at it. Numbers don’t lie.
My End of Year results for your viewing pleasure
Year To Date Record: _ 407-373-46
Units: _ +48.69
Return on Investment: _ 4.6%
Major Results Overall: 93-75 +29.61u
Australian Open: 15-15 +4.61u
French Open: 20-16 +.95u
Wimbledon: 30-24 +17.76u
US Open: 28-20 +6.29u
What my end of the season numbers and accolades leave out is how I got here. Right? That’s what most people who think critically want to know. What strategies are used? Models? Systems? Game Knowledge? All serious things to think about that I really had no desire to share. Then I remembered why I’m in this game. Yes I want to make good money but I also want to help others, not just with my picks and knowledge of tennis, but with insight and teachings too.
At the beginning of every season, sometime around Christmas Break when I have some time away from teaching, I sit down and analyze the previous year and ask myself a series of questions. Some of which are listed below:
Who played in the most tournaments the previous year?
What players made finals, semi-finals, & won tournaments?
What was the success rate of players playing in their home country vs outside of it?
Who made a serious jump in rankings?
How did playing the week before impact the next week of tournament (s) play?
Who is poised for a break out season?
I then create a chart of the top 200 players and create groupings. The organization is simple and somewhat unnecessary but in my opinion, mean so much to the overall success of the upcoming season. I categorize players and assign them letter grades, A+ through F and chunk them together. Now the groupings aren’t finalized they are merely a start. Players can move up and down based on things like injury, current level of play, home court advantage, rivalry match ups etc. I use this strategy every single day to determine my selections and wager sizes.
The discrepancies in grade levels help determine things like a money line wager vs a spread wager, an over/under, futures and parlays. Where I struggle is how I would categorize my selection strategy. It’s not a model because it isn’t numbers based. It’s not a system because of the variation and constant changes. It’s more than strictly knowledge of the game because of the grading complexities and match up analysis. So what is it?
It’s just successful. It’s unique. It works for me.
Despite my strategies and successes I have a long way to go. I am always looking to improve my practice and educate myself on different ways in which to gain an edge. One area I will be focusing on for the 2018 season is CLV. It will be tracked and displayed on my weekly spread sheets because It’s important for the long term success of a capper to beat the closing line. Mathematically, you are making sure you have a constant edge, which in turn, when combined with game knowledge, helps you save on losses and maximize winnings. Another area of improvement for the 2018 season will be discipline. I have always loved dabbling in WTA tournaments but my biggest issue is my lack of knowledge and player understanding. The women’s game is the polar opposite of the men’s game and outside of the top 50 or so I’m uneducated. Does that mean I will stop WTA all together? No. I will however be limiting myself to WTA 1000 level events as well as majors. Anything else will be ignored. Finally, I will look to improve my profit margins on future plays. Last season I correctly selected Roger Federer to win Wimbledon and collected a decent sized purse but missed all other future selections. 50% next year is a must.
Overall, I have one goal for the 2018 tennis season and that is win. Too many cappers, myself included, set goals that are achievable and measurable but add pressure on the daily grind which causes you to lose focus on the end result. Many of my clients know I love taking it one day at a time and will continue to do so. You learn more by staying in tune with yourself, adjusting where necessary on the daily vs yearly. I look forward to having a great 2018 as well as improving my craft for all to see and profit from.
Lets Make Today Great,
GB
2018 Access Prices:
Weekly: $65.00
Monthly: $125.00
3 Month: $325.00
Major Tournaments: $85.00
ONE LOVE
